Valuing Sorare Cards – Estimating The Monetary Worth of NFTs

Valuing Sorare Cards – Estimating The Monetary Worth of NFTs

Valuing Sorare cards is one of the most difficult things to do on the platform whether you are new to Sorare or a veterans like the guys here at Sorare Hub. This is a fascinating and complex area with no definitive answer but Sorare Hub’s KBrown and SorareSam share their thoughts below.

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Valuing Assets – A Quick Guide

As with all assets, there are broadly two different types of measurable value – intrinsic and extrinsic. Intrinsic value is something we will come onto later in this article; first a quick look at the extrinsic side of Sorare card collecting. 

Extrinsic ValueValuing Sorare Cards

Extrinsic value of Sorare cards (and most NFTs) tends to be underpinned by their broad collectability value. In many ways, this is a great unknown market and it will be fascinating to see whether over time this collectability value crystalises into a true worth. The closest parallel we have to this conceptually is the world of physical trading cards, which have clearly shown a rapidly appreciating collectability value in recent years. 

The PWCC 500 Index, which is essentially the S&P 500 for trading cards, has reported a 12-year ROI of 175% compared to 102% for the S&P. The best known example of this is a Mike Trout rookie baseball card which sold for $3.9 million earlier this year, breaking the all-time record set in 2016 by the famous T206 Honus Wagner ($3.12 million).

This is a true example of extrinsic value but does it exist in the world of Sorare and is it replicable? Many are sceptical that we will ever see collectability premiums appreciate in value in the same way as their physical counterparts, but even on a conceptual level we know that these cards must have some element of extrinsic value. Consider this as a brief thought experiment:

If SO5 did not exist, would a Kylian Mbappe Unique card still have a value, or would it be worth 0.00 ETH?

We know that intuitively, because of both its digital scarcity, licensed authenticity and “player brand” that even if these cards had no tournaments to enter or prizes to win they would still be bought and sold for a cash value. We know that this must be true based on the many “celebrity” NFT projects which have been launched in 2020, with many of these token based products selling for significant sums despite a lack of income generating utility.

On this basis, we know that (conceptually at least) Sorare NFTs do have an extrinsic value which is not linked to their ability to win prizes or generate additional revenue. Proving the concept is one thing, quantifying it is quite another though. Right now, it’s very difficult to estimate a mechanism for determining the collectability value of a Sorare card but it would seem that it is roughly proportionate to a player’s reputation or “brand value”.

Interestingly, some academic work has been completed on trying to assess and rank the brand value of individual footballers and if this is something you find interesting then you can read more about it here: https://efsupit.ro/images/stories/iunie2021/Art%20222.pdf

There are some other determinants of Sorare NFT extrinsic values. Established collectors will know that there are some quirks to watch out for – Serial number 1 for example or cards with Serial numbers which are the same as the squad number of the player printed on the card. Special edition cards with one off designs also can be attributed to generating additional extrinsic value.

But what about intrinsic value? From our discussions with other members of the community, this is what really excites other collectors and KBrown sets out his thoughts below.

Intrinsic ValueValuing Sorare Cards

Intrinsic value of the player cards (NFT’s) on Sorare is derived by the utility they offer. This is a huge driving force into what attracts so many to playing the game. It goes without saying, the greater the utility of the card, the more attractive the card is, resulting in a higher price. This leads us to question, what gives a player card greater utility?

First, would be the availability of the player card. If a card can be entered in a greater number of tournaments, the more likely the card is able to win prizes. The biggest factor in giving the player the greatest level of availability is age. The younger the player, the more games they are likely to have ahead of them. What is much more complex is knowing how well the player will perform over the remainder of their career. This follows on to the second factor to increase the availability, elite competitions. Players of a higher certain ability will represent clubs that play in the elite regional competitions, such as the UEFA Champions League. National team selection also gives further Game Week entry opportunities.

However, what is extremely important to consider is that a card in isolation has zero utility. This is because we must enter a team of five players in the S05 game.

How Do I Win?Valuing Sorare Cards

Now that we are aware that greater availability gives the opportunity for winning prizes; we can also look at our second question. What increases the chances of winning prizes? Of course, this is now a case of S05 analysis and how well a player can score.

A common tactic when playing fantasy football style games is picking players that have favourable fixtures in the Game Week ahead. Using this theory, the teams that are most likely to win the league overall will also have the most favourable fixtures each week. Therefore, a player within these teams will be likely to score well on a regular basis.

Therefore, putting both of the previous pieces together, a player that is both young, and plays for a top team will have a very high level of intrinsic value.

A simple graph can display this, as shown below:

Even using this basic strategy still leads to a huge puzzle to solve in order to win prizes. Do you choose to stack multiple players from the same club? Or do you choose the key players from a range of top teams to reduce the variance in the team score? With there also being a budget constraint, it creates the challenge we all love and take on continuously.

Yield, Yield, Yield.Valuing Sorare Cards

Moving another step onwards. Now we are aware of how to recognise players with greater intrinsic value, we can begin to calculate the yield of a card in a single Game Week by using simple formulae. 

Card Return = (Value of Prize Won / Total Cost of S05 Team) / 5

Card Yield = Card Return / Cost of Card

The above formula evenly distributes the value of the prize won across the total cost of the S05 team. As there are 5 cards within a team, we divide the team’s yield by 5 to calculate the card’s yield. 

A simple development of this model can then be applied. We can then ask the following question:

If each card has a different Card Score, contributing to the Total Team Score within the S05 Game Week, should we attach a weighted yield for each card within the prize winning team? 

This generates the following formulae:

Card Return = (Value of Prize Won / Team Score) x Card Score

Card Yield = Card Return / Cost of Card

Perhaps a worked example may help understand the above:

Assume a team has been entered into a S05 tournament. 

  • The cost of the player’s card is 0.2Eth.  
  • A prize won is worth 0.3Eth
  • The card we are valuing had a card score of 100.
  • The Team Score is 300.

Card Return = (0.3 / 300) x 100 = 0.001 x 100 = 0.1

Card Yield = 0.1 / 0.2 = 50%

Each card within the S05 will have its own yield value.

If there is no prize won. The yield is simply 0%.

The Never Ending Cycle of Value

If we are to reference the previous formulae. In order to value a card, a second card in the form of a prize is required. This second card will also be valued by the amount of prizes it can win, which also includes further cards. This creates something incredibly complex and interesting. The function of valuing a card also contains a function within it. 

For example:

Value of Card ‘X’ = Lifetime Value of Potential Card Prizes + Lifetime Ethereum Prizes

Where ‘Lifetime Value of Potential Card Prizes’ is also equal to ‘Lifetime Value of Potential Card Prizes + Lifetime Ethereum Prizes’.

If this is a little too complex to understand. I have drawn up a diagram to display this.

Therefore, we can see how this is a cyclical process with Ethereum acting as a base to create a ‘floor price’ for each card. Of course a player can choose to aim to collect as many cards as possible from the very first day they begin playing Sorare. However, because there is a limit to the number of cards that can be entered into tournaments due to the structure of the Sorare game, it may be in your best interest to sell prizes to reinvest Ethereum into stronger cards or cards of a different scarcity.

The Point

The point at which you do this is also very complex and isn’t something we will cover today. Everyone also has their own preferences to which progression path they take. Some may want to climb from Global All Star Division 5 up to Division 1. Others may wish to cover all of the regional Division 5 tournaments before progressing to Division 4, where Rare cards are required.

This walkthrough of intrinsic value of cards may have answered some questions you had previously. It may also have developed some further questions around the intrinsic value of cards. Discussion around this is always welcome within our Discord server, which you can find via the Sorare Hub link here

Conclusion

Valuing any kind of asset can be difficult. This article has displayed how difficult it can be to value an NFT on Sorare; particularly calculating intrinsic value of cards. However, the dynamic element to valuing cards on Sorare is what we believe makes this game so much more than just a fantasy football game. We are sure many others will have their own ways of valuing cards on Sorare, and we’d be keen to listen to how you do so. Perhaps in the future the game of Sorare will have developed further down the line, creating different elements to valuing cards. 

Have you now got an interest in French football because of Sorare? Well come take a look at our detailed Ligue 1 preview by guest writer FI Genesis he is obsessed with the french football scene you can find it here.